ANALYSIS OF BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION IN HEALTH SECTOR COMPANIES LISTED ON THE INDONESIAN STOCK EXCHANGE IN THE PERIOD 2021-2023
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Dec 1, 2025
Keywords:
Financial Distress, Bankruptcy, Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski, Grover, Fulmer
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Abstract
This study aims to analyze the bankruptcy of healthcare companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2021-2023 period using the Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski, Grover, and Fulmer models and to determine whether there are differences in conditions from the results of the financial distress model analysis using the Altman Z-Score, Springate, Zmijewski, Grover, and Fulmer models and to determine the model that has the highest level of accuracy in predicting the potential for bankruptcy in companies. This research is a study with a mix method approach. The data source in this study is secondary data in the form of financial reports. The population in this study were healthcare companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2021-2023 period. Sampling was carried out using a purposive sampling technique so that a sample of 23 companies and 96 analysis units were obtained. The results of this study indicate that Indofarma is the only company predicted to go bankrupt in the results of each financial distress model. The results of this study also show that there are differences in conditions from the results of the financial distress model analysis in healthcare companies. The model that has the highest level of accuracy in healthcare companies is the Grover model at 95.66%. The results of the best predictions and models can provide information in the form of positive signals and early warning systems for investors
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References
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Spence, M. (1973). Job Market Signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882010
Sudrajat, M. A., & Wijayanti, E. (2019). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan (Financial Distress) Dengan Perbandingan Model Altman, Zmijewski Dan Grover. INVENTORY: JURNAL AKUNTANSI, 3(2), 116. https://doi.org/10.25273/inventory.v3i2.5240
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Wahidah, A. N., Muklis, M., & Fikri, M. (2024). Prediction of Financial Distress Levels in State-Owned Cipta Karya Companies Using the Altman Z-Score, Springate, and Zmijewski Models. Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING), 7(4), 9091–9100. https://doi.org/10.31539/costing.v7i4.10892
Andriani, S. F., Rahardja, L., Efriadi, A. R., & Cindi, R. J. (2023). Comparative Analysis of Financial Distress Models in Indonesian Multi-Industrial Manufacturing During COVID-19. International Journal of Digital Entrepreneurship and Business, 4(2). https://doi.org/10.52238/ideb.v4i2.130
Brigham, E. F., Houston, J. F., & Yulianto, A. A. (2009). Dasar-dasar Manajemen Keuangan Buku 1 (Edisi 10). Salemba Empat.
Christa, F., & Mukti, A. H. (2023). Analysis Of Prediction Of Bankruptcy (Financial Distress) Using The Altman Z Score Method And The Grover Method (In Retail Companies Listed On The Indonesia Stock Exchange 2017-2019). Jurnal Akuntansi Universitas Jember, 21(2).
CNBC. (2023, Agustus). Saham Kesehatan Turun Setelah Rilis Laporan Keuangan. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20230801102251-17-459018/saham-kesehatan-turun-setelah-rilis-laporan-keuangan
CNBC Indonesia. (2024). Saham Kesehatan Turun Setelah Rilis Laporan Keuangan. https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/market/20230801102251-17-459018/saham-kesehatan-turun-setelah-rilis-laporan-keuangan
Darsono & Ashari. (2005). Pedoman Praktis Memahami Laporan Keuangan. Andi.
Ghazali, I. (2021). Aplikasi Analisis Multivariate Dengan Program SPSS 26. Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponogoro.
Ghozali, I. (2018). Aplikasi Analisis Multivariate Dengan Program IBM SPSS 25. Badan Penerbit Universitas Diponegoro.
Hanafi, M. M., & Halim, A. (2016). Analisis Laporan Keuangan (Edisi Kelima). UPP STIM YKPN.
Harahap, S. S. (2015). Analisis Kritis atas Laporan Keuangan (Cetak 1 Edisi 6). RajaGrafindo Persada.
Harsanti, P., Aditya, A. A., & Hidayanti, A. N. (2024). Analisis Perbandingan Prediksi Kebangkrutan Dengan Model Altman Z-Score, Model Springate, Model Zmijewski Dan Model Grover Pada Sektor Consumer Non-Cyclicals. EKOMA : Jurnal Ekonomi, Manajemen, Akuntansi, Volume 3 No.4.
Haryani, S., & Syafei, J. (2023). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Jasa Sektor Transportasi Di BEI Periode 2019-202. JAAMTER : Jurnal Audit Akuntansi Manajemen Terintegrasi, 1(4).
Kasmir. (2019). Analisis Laporan Keuangan (Edisi Revisi Cetak 12). Rajawali Pers.
Kemenkes RI. (2024). Profil Kesehatan Indonesia 2023. Kemenkes RI.
Kontan.co.id. (2024). Cetak Rugi di Tahun 2023, Ini Penjelasan Kimia Farma (KAEF). https://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/cetak-rugi-di-tahun-2023-ini-penjelasan-kimia-farma-kaef
Nurhayati, I., Endri, E., Suharti, T., Sundarta, I., & Rinda, R. T. (2022). The Accuracy of Financial Distress Prediction During the COVID-19 Pandemic on Healthcare Sub-Sector Companies. 19.
Pakdaman, H. (2018). Investigating the Ability of Altman and Springate and Zmijewski and Grover Bankruptcy Prediction Models in Tehran Stock Exchange. Revista: Espacios, 39 Number 14, 33.
Platt, H., & Platt, M. (2008). Financial Distress Comparison Across Three Global Regions. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 1(1), 129–162. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm1010129
Pratiwi, M. R., Atmadjaja, Y. V. I., & Ferawati, I. W. (2023). Prediction Analysis of Company Bangkruptcy Using Comparison of the Altman Method (Z-score) and Grover Method (G-scrore) as an Early Warning System in Pharmaceutical Subsector Companies. Jurnal Maksipreneur: Manajemen, Koperasi, Dan Entrepreneurship, 12(2), 486. https://doi.org/10.30588/jmp.v12i2.1472
Pratiwi, R. D. (2020). Do Capital Structure, Profitability, And Firm Size Affect Firm Value? Jurnal Penelitan Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 5(2), 194–202. https://doi.org/10.33633/jpeb.v5i2.3717
Prihadi, T. (2019). Analisis Laporan Keuangan: Konsep dan Aplikasi. Gramedia Pustaka Utama.
Purwanti, L., Arief Effendi, S., Ibrahim, M., Tam Cahyadi, R., & Prakoso, A. (2024). Prediction and Comparison of Bankruptcy Models in Banking Sector Companies in Indonesia. Educational Administration: Theory and Practice. https://doi.org/10.53555/kuey.v30i4.2224
Putri, N. K. A. R., & Werastuti, D. N. S. (2020). Analisis Model Fulmer dan Grover dalam Memprediksi Financial Distress pada Industri Barang Konsumsi. JIMAT (Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa Akuntansi) Universitas Pendidikan Ganesha, 11 No. 3.
Rj Nur, D. A., Ismadharliani, A., & Sudharyati, N. (2022). Analisis Komparatif Tingkat Akurasi Model Prediksi Kebangkrutan antara Model Altman, Zmijewski, Springate dan Grover pada Perusahaan Delisting 2018 di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Ekonomis: Journal of Economics and Business, 6(2), 790. https://doi.org/10.33087/ekonomis.v6i2.691
Rosalina, L., Oktarina, R., Rahmiati, & Saputra, I. (2023). Buku Ajar Statistika (Cetakan Pertama). CV. MUHARIKA RUMAH ILMIAH.
Saputra, D., & Arisyah, F. N. D. (2024). Analisis Perbandingan Ketepatan Prediksi Kebangkrutan Antara Model Altman Dan Spring Gate Di Perusahaanyang Delisting Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Geoekonomi, 15.
Setyawan, D. A. (2022). Statistik Kesehatan: Analisis Bivariat pada Hipotesis Penelitian (Cetakan Pertama). Tahta Media Grup.
Siswanto, P. R., & Romadon, S. A. (2021). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan Menggunakan Model Altman, Springate, Dan Zmijewski Pada Perusahaan Farmasi. Jurnal Manajemen dan Bisnis, 1(2), 93–102. https://doi.org/10.32509/jmb.v1i2.2176
Spence, M. (1973). Job Market Signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), 355. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882010
Sudrajat, M. A., & Wijayanti, E. (2019). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan (Financial Distress) Dengan Perbandingan Model Altman, Zmijewski Dan Grover. INVENTORY: JURNAL AKUNTANSI, 3(2), 116. https://doi.org/10.25273/inventory.v3i2.5240
Sugiyono. (2013). Metode Penelitian Manajemen: Pendekatan Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, Kombinasi ( Mixed Methods ), Penelitian Tindakan ( Action Research ), Penelitian Evaluasi (Cet.1). Alfabeta.
Sugiyono. (2017). Metode Penelitian Pendidikan: Pendekatan kuantitatif, kualitatif, dan R dan D (Cetak 25). Alfabeta.
Tempo.co. (2024). Kronologi Indofarma Terpukul Melandainya Covid-19, Tak Bayar Gaji sejak Januari. https://bisnis.tempo.co/read/1854368/kronologi-indofarma-terpukul-melandainya-covid-19-tak-bayar-gaji-sejak-januari
Wahidah, A. N., Muklis, M., & Fikri, M. (2024). Prediction of Financial Distress Levels in State-Owned Cipta Karya Companies Using the Altman Z-Score, Springate, and Zmijewski Models. Journal of Economic, Bussines and Accounting (COSTING), 7(4), 9091–9100. https://doi.org/10.31539/costing.v7i4.10892
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